Table 3

Risk prediction model for breast cancer with and without estradiol (loge)
No estradiol model
Parameter
 Beta
 SE
 P value
 Increment
 RR
 95% CI
Intercept
 -10.8




Duration of premenopause, years
 0.102
 0.009
 <0.001
 1
 1.11
 1.09, 1.13
(Age at first birth minus age at menarche) × parousa
 0.0035
 0.0051
 0.49
 10
 1.04
 0.94, 1.14
Birth indexa
 -0.0030
 0.0007
 <0.001
 102
 0.74
 0.64, 0.85
Duration of postmenopause (natural menopause)
 0.049
 0.006
 <0.001
 1
 1.05
 1.04, 1.06
Duration of postmenopause (bilateral oophorectomy)
 0.039
 0.008
 <0.001
 1
 1.04
 1.02, 1.06
Benign breast disease
 0.288
 0.656
 0.66
 1
 1.33
 0.37, 4.82
Benign breast disease × age at menarche
 0.091
 0.027
 0.001
 1
 1.10
 1.04, 1.15
Benign breast disease × duration premenopause
 -0.018
 0.012
 0.14
 1
 0.98
 0.96, 1.01
Benign breast disease × duration postmenopause
 -0.029
 0.008
 <0.001
 1
 0.97
 0.96, 0.99
Duration of estrogen use
 0.032
 0.008
 <0.001
 10
 1.38
 1.18, 1.61
Duration of estrogen plus progestin use
 0.068
 0.013
 <0.001
 10
 1.97
 1.53, 2.55
Duration of other PMH use
 0.032
 0.011
 0.006
 10
 1.38
 1.11, 1.71
Current PMH use
 0.109
 0.079
 0.17
 1
 1.12
 0.96, 1.30
Past PMH use
 -0.022
 0.073
 0.76
 1
 0.98
 0.85, 1.13
Average BMI premenopause or postmenopause while on PMH × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)
 -0.0011
 0.0003
 <0.001
 370b
 0.67
 0.54, 0.83
Average BMI postmenopause while not on PMH × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)
 0.0038
 0.0006
 <0.001
 200c
 2.14
 1.69, 2.71
Height × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)
 0.00072
 0.00037
 0.052
 222d
 1.17
 1.00, 1.38
Height × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)
 -1 × 10-5
 0.0015
 0.99
 120e
 1.00
 0.70, 1.42
Cumulative alcohol consumption before menopause, grams
 0.00034
 0.00009
 <0.001
 384f
 1.14
 1.06, 1.22
Cumulative alcohol consumption after menopause while on PMH
 -0.00036
 0.00041
 0.39
 120g
 0.96
 0.87, 1.05
Cumulative alcohol consumption postmenopause while not on PMH
 0.00008
 0.00031
 0.80
 240h
 1.02
 0.88, 1.18
Family history of breast cancer
 0.447
 0.065
 <0.001
 1
 1.56
 1.38, 1.78







Model including loge estradioli
Parameter
 Beta
 SE
 P value
 Increment
 RR
 95% CI
Intercept
 -11.9




Duration of premenopause, years
 0.101
 0.01
 <0.001
 1
 1.11
 1.08, 1.13
(Age at first birth minus age at menarche) × parousa
 0.0035
 0.0055
 <0.001
 10
 1.04
 0.93, 1.15
Birth index
 -0.0020
 0.0008
 0.02
 102
 0.82
 0.69, 0.96
Duration of postmenopause (natural menopause)
 0.056
 0.007
 <0.001
 1
 1.06
 1.04, 1.07
Duration of postmenopause (bilateral oophorectomy)
 0.045
 0.009
 <0.001
 1
 1.05
 1.03, 1.06
Benign breast disease
 0.287
 0.719
 0.69
 1
 1.33
 0.33, 5.45
Benign breast disease × age at menarche
 0.091
 0.029
 0.002
 1
 1.10
 1.03, 1.16
Benign breast disease × duration premenopause
 -0.018
 0.014
 0.18
 1
 0.98
 0.96, 1.01
Benign breast disease × duration postmenopause
 -0.029
 0.008
 0.001
 1
 0.97
 0.96, 0.99
Duration of estrogen use
 0.032
 0.009
 <0.001
 10
 1.38
 1.15, 1.64
Duration of estrogen plus progestin use
 0.068
 0.014
 <0.001
 10
 1.97
 1.50, 2.60
Duration of other PMH use
 0.032
 0.013
 0.012
 10
 1.38
 1.07, 1.78
Current PMH use
 0.110
 0.087
 0.21
 1
 1.12
 0.94, 1.32
Past PMH use
 -0.022
 0.080
 0.78
 1
 0.98
 0.84, 1.14
Average BMI premenopause or postmenopause while on PMH × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)
 -0.0011
 0.0003
 <0.001
 370b
 0.67
 0.54, 0.83
Average BMI postmenopause while not on PMH × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)
 0.0023
 0.0007
 0.002
 200c
 1.58
 1.20, 2.08
Height × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH)
 0.00072
 0.00041
 0.072
 222d
 1.17
 0.98, 1.40
Height × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH)
 0
 0.0016
 1
 120e
 1.00
 0.69, 1.46
Cumulative alcohol consumption before menopause, grams
 0.00034
 0.0001
 0.001
 384f
 1.14
 1.06, 1.23
Cumulative alcohol consumption after menopause while on PMH
 -0.00036
 0.00045
 0.43
 120g
 0.96
 0.86, 1.06
Cumulative alcohol consumption postmenopause while not on PMH
 0.00008
 0.00034
 0.81
 240h
 1.02
 0.87, 1.20
Family history of breast cancer
 0.446
 0.072
 <0.001
 1
 1.56
 1.36, 1.80
Loge estradiol
 0.477
 0.092
 <0.001
 1
 1.61
 1.35, 1.93

a0 for nulliparous women.

bComparing BMI = 20 versus BMI = 30 for 37 premenopausal years (age at menarche = 13, age at menopause = 50).

cComparing BMI = 20 versus BMI = 30 for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).

dComparing height = 61 inches versus height = 67 inches for 37 premenopausal years (age at menarche = 13, age at menopause = 50).

eComparing height = 61 inches versus height = 67 inches for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).

fComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 32 premenopausal years (from age 18 to age 50).

gComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 10 years of PMH use.

hComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).

iBased on an average of five imputations.

BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; PMH, postmenopausal hormone; RR, relative risk; SE, standard error.

Rosner et al. Breast Cancer Research 2008 10:R55   doi:10.1186/bcr2110