Table 4

Overall actual and predicted mortality in West Midland Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) cohort

Year 5 deaths*

Year 8 deaths*


Group

N

%

A

P

Mortality

Difference

A

P

Mortality

Difference

AUC

SE


Total

5,468

100

862

950

1.61

955

1006

0.93

0.79

0.008

Age, years

<35

108

1.98

21

24

2.78

28

26

1.85

0.70

0.057

35 to 49

1,195

21.85

153

185

2.68

175

201

2.18

0.79

0.018

50 to 64

2,393

43.76

279

311

1.34

310

334

1

0.80

0.013

65 to 74

1,101

20.14

198

203

0.45

218

217

0.09

0.76

0.018

75+

671

12.27

211

216

0.75

224

228

0.6

0.72

0.021

Nodal status

Negative

3,184

58.23

265

333

2.14

301

357

1.76

0.74

0.015

Positive

2,284

41.77

597

606

0.39

654

648

0.26

0.75

0.011

Tumour size, mm

<10

485

8.87

27

32

1.03

29

34

1.03

0.82

0.040

10 to 19

2,136

39.06

173

216

2.01

196

233

1.73

0.76

0.018

20 to 29

1,566

28.64

259

274

0.96

286

295

0.57

0.71

0.017

30 to 49

923

16.88

257

258

0.11

272

276

0.43

0.72

0.018

50+

358

6.55

146

160

3.91

156

168

3.35

0.72

0.027

Grade

I

1,017

18.6

66

67

0.1

75

72

0.29

0.79

0.029

II

2,442

44.66

314

318

0.16

359

344

0.61

0.77

0.013

III

2,009

36.74

482

554

3.58

521

589

3.38

0.75

0.012

Oestrogen Receptor (ER) Status

Negative

1,116

20.41

317

364

4.21

341

380

3.49

0.76

0.016

Positive

4,352

79.59

545

575

0.69

614

625

0.25

0.78

0.010


* Number of deaths after censoring follow up at five and eight years after diagnosis.

† Predicted number of deaths rounded to nearest whole number

Wishart et al. Breast Cancer Research 2010 12:R1   doi:10.1186/bcr2464

Open Data