Table 4

Estimates from formal overdiagnosis modelling, Gothenburg Trial data, ages 39 to 59 years

Quantity

Estimate

95% CI

Incidence (true cases)/1000 (I)

1.9

(1.6–2.3)

Screening test sensitivity (S)

99.9

(99.6–100)

Progression to clinical cancer (λ)

0.52

(0.41–0.67)

Incidence of overdiagnosed cases/1000 (μ)

0.0034

(0.0000–0.0238)

Percent overdiagnosis (first screen)

4.2

(0.0–28.8)

Percent overdiagnosis (second screen)

0.3

(0.0–2.0)

Percent overdiagnosis (third screen)

0.3

(0.0–2.0)

CI, confidence interval.

Duffy et al. Breast Cancer Research 2005 7:258   doi:10.1186/bcr1354