Table 1

Known risk factors and their incorporation into existing risk models

Relative risk at extremes
 Gail model
 Claus model
 BRCAPRO model
 Cuzick–Tyrer model
 BOADICEA model
Prediction





     Amir and colleagues' [27] validation study ratioa
0.48
 0.56
 0.49
 0.81
 Not assessed
     95% confidence interval [27]
0.54–0.90
 0.59–0.99
 0.52–0.80
 0.85–1.41
 Not assessed
Personal information





     Age (20–70 years)
 30
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
     Body mass index
 2
 No
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Alcohol intake (0–4 units) daily
 1.24
 No
 No
 No
 No
 No
Hormonal/reproductive factors





     Age at menarche
 2
 Yes
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Age at first live birth
 3
 Yes
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Age at menopause
 4
 No
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Hormone replacement therapy use
 2
 No
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Oral contraceptive pill use
 1.24
 No
 No
 No
 No
 No
     Breast feeding
 0.8
 No
 No
 No
 No
 No
     Plasma oestrogen
 5
 No
 No
 No
 No
 No
Personal breast disease





     Breast biopsies
 2
 Yes
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Atypical ductal hyperplasia
 3
 Yes
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Lobular carcinoma in situ
 4
 No
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
     Breast density
 6
 No
 No
 No
 No
 No
Family history





     First-degree relatives
 3
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
     Second-degree relatives
 1.5
 No
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
     Third-degree relatives
No
 No
 No
 No
 Yes
     Age of onset of breast cancer
 3
 No
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
     Bilateral breast cancer
 3
 No
 No
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
     Ovarian cancer
 1.5
 No
 No
 Yes
 Yes
 Yes
     Male breast cancer
 3–5
 No
 No
 Yes
 No
 Yes

BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm. aExpected over observed cancer ratio (all models assessed underestimated cancer occurrence).

Evans and Howell Breast Cancer Research 2007 9:213   doi:10.1186/bcr1750